Indonesia’s nickel export forecast reaches US$39.7 billion for 2026

Production restrictions are helping Indonesia earn more from nickel exports, the National Economic Council (DEN) said, projecting their value at US$39.7 billion for 2026. That would be 28% higher than in 2024, while export volume is projected to increase by 13% over that period.

Septian Hario Seto, a DEN member and its executive secretary, attributed the price gains to limits imposed through the mining work plan and budget system, known as RKAB. DEN figures showed nickel averaged US$17,494 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME) during January–August 2026, up 15% year on year.

For exports through August 2026, Seto reported an increase in value of about 17%, even as shipments by volume fell roughly 4%. In comments cited on 22 October, he said the restrictions were both preserving reserves and raising export value.

Indonesia’s mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), an intermediate product processed from laterite nickel ore, was also fetching prices closer to the LME benchmark, Seto said. Its discount narrowed to 10% in 2026 from 21% in 2024.

Seto said an April 2026 revision to the mineral benchmark price had lifted government receipts from saprolite ore. He forecast that nickel-related non-tax state revenue would surpass the target for 2026.

With Indonesia producing two-thirds of the world’s nickel, Seto said managing supply was necessary to avoid a surplus that could push prices lower.