Vietnam projects 9.1% rise in budget revenue for 2027
Development investment is projected to account for 43% of expenditure, while the budget deficit is estimated at 4.5% of GDP.
Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance projects revenue of approximately ₫3,334.3 trillion for the 2027 state budget, around 9.1% above the expected 2026 outturn. Spending is estimated at approximately ₫4,074.3 trillion, an increase of ₫915.2 trillion from the 2026 budget estimate.
The expenditure plan provides approximately ₫1,756 trillion for development investment, representing 43% of spending against 35.5% in the 2026 estimate. Recurrent spending, which includes salary reform, is projected at ₫2,061.3 trillion, or 50.6% of expenditure, compared with 57.3% in the 2026 estimate.
Domestic revenue is forecast at ₫2,949.5 trillion, a 10% rise from the expected 2026 outturn and 88.5% of total revenue. Import and export activities are projected to generate ₫531 trillion, up 6%. The ministry estimates value-added tax refunds at approximately ₫207.2 trillion, around 5.1% higher.
Crude oil receipts are projected at ₫52 trillion, equivalent to 83.5% of the expected 2026 outturn. That forecast assumes an oil price of approximately US$75 per barrel and planned production of 8.5 million tonnes.
The ministry forecasts a deficit of approximately ₫740 trillion, or 4.5% of GDP, compared with 4.2% in the 2026 estimate. Public debt is expected to reach approximately 34–35% of GDP by the end of 2027, with government debt at around 33–34% and national external debt at around 30–31%.
The allocation plan also calls for upfront savings of 5% on public investment spending to provide additional funding for key and urgent projects. A further 10% saving on recurrent spending, separate from savings for salary reform, would supplement social welfare resources.
