Thailand retains BBB+ sovereign rating with stable outlook

Thailand’s Ministry of Finance said S&P Global Ratings had kept the country’s sovereign credit rating at BBB+ and its outlook stable. Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the assessment signalled confidence in the government’s approach to growth and fiscal discipline.

S&P forecasts that the economy will expand by 2.3% in 2026, following 2.4% in 2025, as external risks and structural constraints weigh on activity. It expects fiscal policy to cushion those pressures and greater political stability to help sustain longer-term policies while allowing more flexibility in responding to immediate challenges.

The agency projects average real GDP growth of 2.4% between 2026 and 2029. It expects government net debt accumulation to reach 4.2% of GDP in 2026 and average 3.5% over 2026–2029. Net general government debt is forecast to increase to 47% of GDP by 2029, from approximately 40% at the end of 2025.

S&P said Thailand’s external finances remained a source of support for the rating, citing its net external creditor position and substantial international reserves. It forecasts a balanced current account in 2026, followed by surpluses of between 2.1% and 2.4% of GDP from 2027 onwards.

Growth compared with peer economies, GDP per capita, fiscal policy and domestic political stability are among the factors S&P said it would monitor. Ekniti said stable outlooks from Fitch, Moody’s and S&P reflected confidence in government policy. He said the government remained committed to encouraging investment in new industries, improving competitiveness and maintaining fiscal discipline.