Vietnam’s 2026 GDP growth forecast lifted to 7.4 per cent

The World Bank has added 1.1 percentage points to its 2026 GDP growth projection for Vietnam, taking it to 7.4 per cent. The forecast was presented on October 6 at an online briefing for the bank’s East Asia and Pacific Economic Update.

Vietnam’s upward revision was the largest among Asia-Pacific economies, and its projected growth rate led the region, the bank said. It expects structural reforms and greater public investment to support activity, alongside manufacturing and exports.

The bank put average inflation for 2026 at 4.2 per cent, citing rising costs for fuel, housing and utilities. It also reported that Vietnam’s goods exports climbed 22 per cent year on year in August, led by strong gains in electronics and machinery.

Investment in electronics and machinery remained high, while first-half foreign direct investment inflows reached a five-year peak. The bank linked Vietnam’s better-than-expected growth to production and exports of high-tech goods and products serving AI demand.

Vietnam was among the economies whose AI-related goods exports were at least twice their 2020-2022 average. However, the bank cautioned that increasing dependence on this activity could become a weakness if the global AI boom slows or reverses. Falling AI demand would affect Vietnam more directly because its exports rely heavily on final demand for AI-related products.

The bank identified domestic AI adoption as a further opportunity. It said Vietnam needs to keep attracting manufacturing investment for AI value chains while strengthening its ability to absorb and apply technology.