Thailand growth outlooks improve as factory index captures more AI output
Banks have raised their 2026 projections, but economists caution that the gains remain concentrated and household demand is weak.
Several banks and research firms have upgraded Thailand’s 2026 economic outlook following changes to manufacturing statistics. Estimates gathered by Bloomberg News put the potential addition to annual GDP growth at roughly 0.2 to 0.3 percentage point.
Among the revised forecasts, Kiatnakin Phatra Securities projects growth of about 2.8 per cent, previously 2.5 per cent. Standard Chartered’s estimate is now about 2.3 per cent rather than 2.1 per cent. Krungthai Compass, the research arm of Krung Thai Bank Pcl, has lifted its forecast from 2.3 per cent to 2.6 per cent.
The manufacturing production index was overhauled to cover newer factories and rapidly expanding products connected to AI and data centres. Laptops, optical transceivers and backup-power equipment are among the additions.
Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, emerging Asia economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Securities, cautioned that the statistical improvement did not signal an economy-wide acceleration. He said household financial weakness continued to weigh on spending and services.
Goldman Sachs Group puts potential first-half GDP growth at 2.9 per cent instead of 2.4 per cent, conditional on the additional factory output having been absent from national accounts. The increase could be limited by manufacturers’ extensive use of imported components, which reduces the value added domestically.
Further forecast changes are largely pending the economic planning agency’s publication of third-quarter GDP and updated projections on Nov 16. The Finance Ministry’s forecast update is scheduled for Nov 9. Kasikorn Research Centre economist Nattaporn Triratanasirikul said its projection remains at 2 per cent, with a November revision planned.
