Thailand growth forecasts rise after AI-linked factory data revision
Several forecasters have raised their 2026 estimates, but weak household finances continue to constrain consumption and services.
Banks and research firms are upgrading their forecasts for Thailand’s economy in 2026 after revised manufacturing figures captured more AI-related production. Estimates gathered by Bloomberg suggest the changes could add 0.2–0.3 percentage points to projected GDP growth.
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities now forecasts growth of around 2.8%, against 2.5% previously. Krungthai Compass, the research arm of Krung Thai Bank Pcl, lifted its projection from 2.3% to 2.6%. Standard Chartered moved its estimate from 2.1% to about 2.3%.
Thailand’s manufacturing production index was overhauled to cover newer factories and expanding product categories associated with AI and data centres. These include laptops, optical transceivers and backup power equipment.
The stronger figures do not indicate an economy-wide recovery, according to Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, emerging Asia economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Securities. He said weak household finances were still restraining consumption and services. Reuters reported that Thailand remained on course for the slowest growth among the major Southeast Asian economies.
Maybank Securities economist Erica Tay estimates that the statistical changes could add 0.2 percentage points to reported growth in 2024, 0.5 points in 2025 and 0.6 points for the first half of 2026.
Most research firms are holding off on forecast increases until Nov. 16, when Thailand’s economic planning agency is scheduled to publish third-quarter GDP data and fresh projections. The Finance Ministry is due to update its forecasts on Nov. 9.
