Indonesia’s parliament to monitor rupiah and oil risks to 2026 budget
Speaker Puan Maharani said exchange rates, oil prices and capital-market movements were putting pressure on fiscal resilience.
Indonesia’s parliament will closely monitor the rupiah and global oil prices because of their implications for the 2026 state budget, Speaker Puan Maharani told a plenary session in Jakarta on 10 November 2026. She said global economic uncertainty was creating fiscal pressure through oil prices, the exchange rate against the US dollar and capital-market movements.
Changes in oil prices and the currency can affect both government revenue and spending. The rupiah has lost around 8 per cent during 2026, reaching the Rp18,000 range against the US dollar.
Bank Danamon chief economist Irman Faiz had earlier forecast an exchange rate of Rp18,032 per US dollar at the end of 2026. He identified external pressures as the main drag on the currency, particularly geopolitical risks that raise energy prices and inflation expectations while keeping US Treasury yields elevated.
Irman said Indonesia, as a net oil importer, needs more US dollars when global oil prices rise. Higher energy import costs could worsen its oil and gas trade balance and put pressure on the current account. He forecast a current account deficit of around 1.5 per cent of gross domestic product in 2026, potentially widening to 1.6 per cent in 2027.
