Indonesia banking survey points to higher new lending in fourth quarter

New loan disbursements in Indonesia are forecast to rise in the fourth quarter of 2026, with banks anticipating less stringent lending conditions, Bank Indonesia said in its banking survey published on 22 October.

The projected weighted net balance for new lending stands at 91.31 per cent. That exceeds the readings of 90.08 per cent in the third quarter of 2026 and 88.92 per cent in the final quarter of 2025.

Although credit conditions are expected to remain restrictive, the Lending Standard Index is projected at 0.15 for the fourth quarter, down from 0.28 in the third. Banks anticipate looser requirements covering loan ceilings, tenors, interest rates and administration, particularly for working-capital lending and housing and apartment mortgages.

Banks continue to rank working-capital credit ahead of investment and consumer lending. Multipurpose loans lead their consumer-credit priorities, followed by housing and apartment mortgages and vehicle financing. Manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and financial intermediation are forecast to attract the biggest allocations.

For outstanding loans at the end of 2026, respondents now project annual growth of 8.20 per cent, up from 7.51 per cent in the earlier survey. The forecast is still below the 9.69 per cent expansion recorded in 2025. Bank Indonesia said expectations for positive economic conditions and contained lending risks supported the outlook.

The weighted net balance for cumulative deposit collection through the fourth quarter is forecast at 89.76 per cent, versus 87.52 per cent in the previous quarter and 93.97 per cent a year earlier. Savings and current-account growth are expected to strengthen, while time-deposit growth is projected to weaken from the third quarter.

About 40 commercial banks participate in the survey, accounting for approximately 80 per cent of national banking assets.