Vietnam growth forecast raised to 9.2 per cent for 2026
Third-quarter GDP expanded 9.95 per cent year-on-year, while UOB expects average inflation to exceed the government's target.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) now projects Vietnam's economy will grow 9.2 per cent in 2026, lifting its estimate from 8.5 per cent following stronger-than-expected third-quarter activity. The bank announced the revision in its October 13 macroeconomic note.
Citing National Statistics Office data, UOB put third-quarter GDP growth at 9.95 per cent year-on-year, the strongest quarterly performance since 2022. That surpassed its own estimate of 9 per cent and Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 8.65 per cent. Growth for the nine-month period reached 9 per cent.
The third-quarter sector figures showed a 12.5 per cent expansion for industry and construction. Services grew a little over 9.5 per cent, while agriculture recorded 4.2 per cent growth. Across nine months, final consumption increased 8.5 per cent and gross capital formation climbed 17.9 per cent.
UOB also highlighted weaker manufacturing indicators. September's Purchasing Managers' Index reading was just under 51.9, down from August's 53.3, while export orders registered a second monthly decline.
September inflation reached 5.1 per cent year-on-year, compared with August's 4.9 per cent. The bank projects roughly 4.7 per cent average inflation for 2026, above the official 4.5 per cent target.
For 2027, UOB increased its growth projection to 8.8 per cent from 8.4 per cent. It flagged possible energy price jumps, tougher US tariffs, constraints on electricity supply and public investment delays as risks.
