Philippines’ payments deficit forecasts narrowed for 2026 and 2027
The central bank still expects external payments shortfalls in both years and has raised its 2026 current account deficit estimate.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) now forecasts Philippine balance of payments deficits of US$9.2 billion in 2026 and US$8.5 billion in 2027, reducing both estimates. It said costly fuel, geopolitical tensions and uneven growth globally were still expected to put pressure on the country’s external position.
For 2026, the projected shortfall amounts to 1.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). The second-quarter forecast had put it at US$10.7 billion, representing 2.1 per cent. The 2027 estimate, now equivalent to 1.6 per cent of GDP, replaces a US$11 billion projection that represented 2.1 per cent.
The BSP made a different adjustment to the 2026 current account outlook, increasing the expected deficit from US$18 billion to US$19.1 billion. Its GDP share rose from 3.6 per cent to 3.8 per cent. For 2027, the bank cut the estimate from US$19.7 billion to US$19.4 billion, with the share falling from 3.7 per cent to 3.6 per cent.
The revised goods export projections stand at US$67.2 billion for 2026 and US$69.9 billion for 2027. Goods imports are forecast at US$139.7 billion and US$143.9 billion respectively. All four estimates were increased.
For trade covering both goods and services, the BSP widened its 2026 deficit estimate from US$56.7 billion to US$58.6 billion. It reduced the corresponding 2027 forecast from US$61.7 billion to US$60.3 billion.
Cash remittance projections were left at US$36.6 billion for 2026 and US$37.7 billion for 2027. The bank also retained its gross international reserves estimates of US$104 billion and US$105 billion respectively, saying reserves would help cushion external shocks.
