Indonesia’s downstream exports forecast to reach US$50 billion in 2026
Aluminium exports are projected at US$7 billion to US$7.2 billion, nearly double their 2024 value, according to the National Economic Council.
Indonesia’s National Economic Council (DEN) expects exports from downstream nickel, aluminium and lithium battery component industries to total about US$50 billion in 2026. That would represent an increase of almost 45 per cent from around US$34.5 billion in 2024.
DEN member Septian Hario Seto outlined the forecast at Merdeka Palace on 21 October 2026. He said it formed part of the council’s latest assessment of downstream industrial development, which had also been presented to President Prabowo Subianto.
Seto said growth was extending beyond nickel, with aluminium and lithium battery components potentially providing additional foreign-exchange earnings. DEN projects aluminium exports of US$7 billion to US$7.2 billion in 2026, compared with about US$3.5 billion in 2024. He said further investment in new aluminium smelters could eventually lift exports beyond about US$10 billion.
The council also highlighted Indonesia’s production of battery components, including anodes and cathodes, and the presence of lithium refining facilities. Seto said these developments showed that Indonesia could build processing industries around natural resources it does not possess domestically, as part of a more complete industrial ecosystem.
