Indonesia forecasts upstream oil and gas revenue at 109% of budget target
SKK Migas says higher crude prices could lift state receipts above the 2026 target despite challenges in raising oil lifting volumes.
Indonesia’s state revenue from upstream oil and gas could reach 109% of its 2026 budget target, according to SKK Migas. Desti Melanti, the agency’s deputy for finance and commercialisation, said receipts had already reached about 80% of the target.
Speaking at a press conference for the 2026 Upstream Oil and Gas Economic Forum in Jakarta on 20 October, Desti said the forecast reflected higher Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) levels. ICP had reached US$106 per barrel, compared with the budget assumption of US$75 per barrel.
SKK Migas expects oil prices to remain around US$95 to US$98 per barrel through the end of the year. Prices could reach US$100 per barrel if geopolitical tensions persist, the agency said.
Desti attributed the stronger revenue outlook mainly to crude prices, while oil lifting volumes continued to face challenges. She said higher prices could increase state receipts even without a significant rise in lifting.
The agency is focusing on commercialisation arrangements to accelerate lifting and capture additional revenue while prices are high. Desti said achieving the revenue target would also require commercialisation efforts by cooperation contract contractors and support from policymakers.
