Southeast Asian e-commerce forecast to approach US$400 billion by 2031
A report by Xendit and Cube points to declining cash-on-delivery use and differing payment preferences across the region.
Xendit and e-commerce intelligence firm Cube forecast that online commerce in Southeast Asia will approach US$400 billion by 2031, up from US$197 billion in 2025. Their Ecommerce Payments Momentum Report 2026 also highlights differences in how consumers pay across the region.
The report puts combined first-quarter 2026 net merchandise value for Shopee, Lazada and TikTok Shop at US$39 billion, compared with US$29 billion a year earlier. The three platforms recorded combined year-on-year growth of 33%.
Cash-on-delivery accounted for roughly half of online transactions in 2019 but now represents well under a third, according to the report. It forecasts that the method will account for less than 25% of regional e-commerce value in 2027.
Payment habits vary by country. In Indonesia, 70% of shoppers use e-wallets for at least half their online purchases. In Thailand, 61% use account-to-account transfers for that share of purchases. Cards remain the most-used method in Singapore, featuring in an estimated 60% of online purchases.
The reasons shoppers abandon purchases also differ. An unavailable payment option was the leading reason in Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia, while security concerns ranked first in Vietnam and Thailand. In Singapore, excessive checkout steps were the top reason, cited by 26%.
Among surveyed business leaders, 92% considered a broad choice of payment methods important or critical for growth, but only 12% believed their infrastructure was prepared for the next decade. Acceptance costs ranked among the two biggest current concerns for 68% of respondents.
