Philippine cash-on-delivery share forecast to remain above 20% in 2027

Cash on delivery is likely to account for more than 20 per cent of Philippine online sales value in 2027 despite growing digital payment use, according to fintech firm Xendit. Its regional forecast puts the cash-on-delivery share below 25 per cent across Southeast Asia.

Xendit’s E-commerce Payments Momentum Report, produced with market intelligence firm Cube, surveyed 6,000 online shoppers in six Southeast Asian markets. Among the 1,000 Filipino respondents, 33 per cent reported using cash on delivery much less often than a year before.

But 12 per cent of Philippine respondents said no incentive would persuade them to stop using the method. Xendit Philippines head of go-to-market Ina Gatan attributed the slower transition partly to reliance on cash, limited banking access and worries about online transaction security.

Discounts and cashback were the leading reasons shoppers would consider digital alternatives. Xendit said dependable refunds and better payment security would also be needed to maintain adoption.

Transactions made through QR codes and bank transfers rose 198 per cent from January 2025 to April 2026, largely supported by wider use of QR Ph and InstaPay. Xendit said QR Ph represented about 13 per cent of online commerce value processed on its platform, while e-wallet payments increased three per cent over that period.

Xendit head of marketing Valerie Cai suggested the Philippine cash-on-delivery share might drop below 20 per cent within the next couple of years, but stressed the estimate was uncertain. Regulation, payment access and consumer behaviour would influence the pace.