Indonesia’s nickel curbs have limited price impact as stocks remain high

Large overseas nickel stockpiles are preventing Indonesia’s production restrictions from substantially lifting global prices, according to Forum Industri Nikel Indonesia (FINI). The curbs operate through the government’s Work Plan and Budget, known as RKAB.

Nickel traded at US$15,137 per tonne on 15 October 2026, Trading Economics data showed, down from nearly US$20,000 per tonne in May 2026. The data provider recorded a decline of about 5.4 per cent over four weeks, citing plentiful supply and a demand outlook too weak to absorb increasing global output.

FINI chairman Arif Perdana Kusumah said tighter Indonesian supply measures had theoretically restored balance to the domestic market by reducing the substantial surpluses of previous years. But stocks held in China and on the London Metal Exchange could rise above 600,000 tonnes in 2026, constraining price increases, he said.

Arif also pointed to geopolitical conditions and uncertainty surrounding domestic and international rules. He said supply curbs had pushed up producers’ marginal costs, lifting the nickel price outlook above earlier expectations.

Indonesia’s processed nickel production is forecast to decline by 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent in 2026, compared with output of 2.5 million tonnes in 2025. Indonesia supplies around 60 per cent of the world’s nickel.